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Men's March Madness
Tournament bracket predictions powered by Elo ratings and Monte Carlo simulations.
2025-26 Tournament Recap
The 2026 NCAA Men's Tournament has concluded. Our Elo-based model tracked all 67 games with projected win probabilities for every matchup.
2,186
Games Tracked This Season
352
Teams Rated by Elo
Elo + MC
Model: Elo + Monte Carlo
How Our Bracket Model Works
Our bracket predictions use a three-layer approach:
- 1. Elo Ratings — every team rated based on full season results with margin-of-victory adjustment and opponent quality weighting.
- 2. KenPom-Style Efficiency — adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency per 100 possessions, iteratively adjusted for opponent strength.
- 3. Monte Carlo Simulation — 5,000 simulations per game producing win probability distributions, score ranges, and upset probabilities.
Next Tournament
The 2027 NCAA Men's Tournament bracket will be available after Selection Sunday (mid-March 2027). Pre-tournament power rankings and efficiency ratings are available now.